AAP sweep: Was Delhi 2015 a BJP strategy?
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| AAP supporters outside the party's Delhi office Image Courtesy: The Financial Express |
AAP 67. BJP 3. Congress 0.
While these figures flash everywhere, take a moment to play
down the hype generated over what must have been India’s most inconsequential state
election.
Having done that, let us now rewind a few months and have a
look at the bigger picture instead.
To consolidate their power and fulfil the promises they had
made during the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, victories in Bihar
(2015), West Bengal (2016) and UP (2017) and improved performances in Kerala
(2016) and Tamil Nadu (2016) are crucial to the ruling BJP led coalition.
While the BJP is gradually increasing its control over these
states, a major problem that it sees despite the Congress’s existential crisis,
is the growing popularity of the Arvind Kejriwal - led AAP.
However, it is to be noted that unlike BJP and Congress, who
have time-tested organized hierarchies, inexperienced AAP is heavily reliant on
Kejriwal and his mass appeal.
This implies that to halt the growing influence of AAP, you’d
have to keep its numero uno at bay.
How do you achieve this? By placing him as the Chief
Minister of Delhi and therefore, detaching him from his party. In fact, the
last time AAP wanted to pursue their national ambitions, Kejriwal had to resign
as CM to devote time to the party, something that he can ill-afford to do this
time.
Now that we've identified the possibility of the motive, let’s
move to how I believe this strategy was implemented.
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| Kiran Bedi and Dr Harshvardhan Image Courtesy: India Today |
1. Bedi's appointment
Kiran Bedi was first rumoured to be BJP’s Chief Ministerial candidate last May much before fresh elections were even announced. The resulting internal backlash within BJP’s Delhi unit compelled prominent party leaders to clarify that such a thing was never going to happen.
It’s now the run-up to the elections and the first set of opinion
polls claim that BJP is poised for a convincing victory. What’s the best way to
fuel internal tension? Invite Bedi to become the party’s Chief Ministerial
candidate. Going for the kill? Make the decision public only 3 weeks before the
election to ensure that she would have no time to cosy up to the rest of the party.
2. At the ground
The BJP top brass deferred the announcement of their
candidates until it was too late. Candidates were surprisingly never given briefings.
Voter connect was never established since orders were given to change local personnel frequently. Knowing Amit Shah and the dexterity with which he handles political campaigns, couldn't these have been deliberate attempts to ensure BJP’s
candidates weren't prepared for the challenge?
3. Bedi, Harshvardhan and Krishna Nagar
Kiran Bedi was made to contest from Krishna Nagar, the
constituency that former Chief Ministerial candidate Dr Harshvardhan had held from
1993 until yesterday. After the 2014 Lok Sabha victory, Harshvardhan was made
Health Minister, quietly relegated to the less attractive Science and
Technology Ministry and completely ignored during these Delhi elections. Asking
the disgruntled man to endorse Bedi while she contested from his turf was quite
clearly going to be the perfect recipe for disaster. Anyone who has watched the
Netflix series House of Cards and Vice-President Jim Matthews’s lack of
interest in Peter Russo in it would understand that!
Result: Chief Ministerial candidate and national icon Kiran
Bedi loses to a Bagga S.K in a 22 year BJP bastion.
4. The campaign
BJP’s recent Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha campaigns were all
about progress and development. This time however, all their leaders did was
tear Kejriwal apart. What was the sudden shift in strategy all about? Did they
sincerely believe that a negative campaign was the best way to tackle Kejriwal?
5. Narendra Tandon's resignation
Bedi’s campaign aide, Narendra Tandon quits from BJP three days before the election.
Don’t we sense another story here? Even if there isn't one, why was this news
made public in the first place?
And guess what? He's back in the party now.
6. Modi Magic
Despite all this, the party’s trump card needs to look
invincible irrespective of the result. Propagate the idea that the election is
NOT a referendum on Modi. Ensure that Modi holds rallies only in places where
BJP is poised to win.
Result: Two of the only three seats BJP had won were in
places where Modi had held rallies.
Final result: Kejriwal wins and while he remains in Delhi, BJP has managed to get rid of Modi’s mosquito.
*****
The purpose of this post is NOT to take away any of the
credit from Kejriwal or AAP. Even if BJP did want to lose, the rout that
happened, is without doubt, a MAJOR concern that calls for some serious
introspection.
The issue with this strategy however, is that there is a
serious chance it could backfire. The nature of AAP’s victory could galvanize its
cadre across the country and make them work harder than ever. Most importantly,
we've learnt from this election that Kejriwal isn't someone who can be taken
for granted.
I understand that this theory does sound a bit far-fetched
but if does hold true, and if Amit Shah has indeed sacrificed the pawn on his
board to conquer AAP, I cannot help but be awestruck by the complexity of the
tactic! Can you?